The stock market is facing historic investment opportunities

2022-05-11 0 By

This bull market is actually entering its fourth year, and many investors have done well in those years.For the last three years of stock market profit poor or even losses of investors, do not lose heart, grasp the market opportunity this year to next year, income will be more than the first three years.However, the prerequisite is, remember to stay away from nearly three years of hype star plate, looking for opportunities from the bottom variety.In the current market is full of pessimistic expectations of the stock market, to learn to think independently, not parrot, the stock market is a minority view is correct.Economic fundamentals will support a good stock market and all the factors that triggered the economic downturn will dissipate in 2022.The epidemic has undoubtedly been a major negative factor in the past two years.In the spring of 2022, the epidemic will reach an inflection point, and its impact on the economy will gradually weaken and even disappear.Industries will also start to recover steadily as the economy at home and abroad returns to normal.From the perspective of the three carriages driving the economy, on the whole, it has positive driving effect on the economy.Exports due to the special circumstances in 2021 caused by ultra-high speed growth, there will be a certain extent of decline this year, but the impact on the economy is relatively small.The service and consumer sectors affected by the epidemic will resume growth and enter a period of recovery.In terms of investment, although the driving role of real estate is fading, investment in infrastructure (including old and new infrastructure) and manufacturing will be clearly driven by the stimulus policies emphasized by relevant government departments, which will significantly promote economic growth this year.I take a different view on concerns about a downturn and the economy may outperform expectations this year.We can still expect the Chinese economy to maintain steady and sound development, and the stock market, as a barometer of the economy, will not disappoint investors in 2022.The relatively loose monetary policy is conducive to the stock market’s upward trend. As early as last year, China had already got rid of the impact of the epidemic in advance, and the monetary policy returned to normal.There is also no risk of high inflation abroad, which is low.So There is no foreign pressure to tighten monetary policy to fight inflation.Based on the policy goal of stable growth, domestic monetary policy will be relatively independent from foreign policy.Overall, monetary policy will be loose this year to stimulate the economy to maintain stable growth.In such a monetary policy background, ample liquidity to support the stock market after the end of the adjustment into the uptrend.The stock market itself is ripe for a new bull market and I’ll mention the seven-year cycle that’s been around lately.According to it, this year is another big peak after 2015.Stock market operation is a complex system, there are a lot of complex factors affecting its trend, and these factors are not periodic and clear, but have quite accidental and random characteristics.As the economy does not have clear time cycle law, the cyclical law of the stock market is also non-existent.There are many rules in the stock market, but there are no immutable ones.When a so-called law is grasped by many people, the law will become invalid.Just as in a seven-year cycle, 2021 was supposed to be a big bull market, but it didn’t happen;Similarly, there will be no bear market this year.If we use these so-called time periods to predict the stock market, we will make a mistake.Wave theory should be understood in the same way.Wave theory has a certain reference value, but we should learn to use it flexibly, not rigidly apply those principles it said.Whatever the technical theory of the stock market, one thing to keep in mind is that the market is the only criterion for testing truth, and theories cannot be used to predict stock market movements subjectively.Nearly a month and a half since the continuous adjustment, seems to be quite weak, in fact, it is a key point of time to reverse up.The adjustment before the Spring Festival is the end of more than a month of adjustment, but also the end of a year and a half of wide oscillation, namely, the adjustment of big wave.This will be followed by the most profitable third wave of the whole bull market.Registration system is about to be fully implemented, which will thoroughly activate the main board market, just with the arrival of the stock market big wave main rising market.The Shanghai Composite index will rise above 4500 and even close to 5000 in about a year and a half to two years.What will be hot topics this year?Before and after the Spring Festival is the most critical period to judge this year’s mainstream market hot spots.This year, mainly from two aspects to study the hot market direction.First of all, a prominent feature of the industries supported by policies this year is that “steady growth” is in a prominent position. The management has repeatedly stressed the need to appropriately advance and promptly introduce a series of stimulus policies.We are focusing on the direction of investment in new and traditional infrastructure.The new infrastructure is the construction of a new type of scientific and technological infrastructure, mainly covering seven areas: 5G base stations, ultra-high voltage, intercity high-speed rail and intercity rail transit, charging piles for new energy vehicles, big data centers, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet.Traditional infrastructure includes transportation, water conservancy, urban reconstruction and affordable housing, involving urban rail, high-speed rail, high-speed and rural road reconstruction.From the historical background, it is obvious that new infrastructure can play a leading role in the short, medium and long term economic development, while traditional infrastructure plays a stimulating role in the short term.From the perspective of stock investment, it is recommended to pay more attention to new infrastructure related companies.The stock market has entered a bull market in 2019, but this bull market is structural.This is closely related to the nature of the stock market rising and two waves of adjustment.In these two phases, the uncertainty of the economic operation leads to capital chasing a few blue-chip stocks with stable performance, which is a structural bull market for second-class stocks.This year is different from previous years, with the arrival of a phase of stable economic growth, most industries will enter the recovery or growth phase, and the stock market will leave the structural bull market.This year’s market will be relatively more comprehensive industry performance, but strong and weak.The bottom quality stocks will enter the main uptrend, while the former star stocks will enter the rebound period.We are in a great era of scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution.At present, China’s economy is in a period of transition from the industrial era to the post-industrial era, which is dominated by information technology industry.The strategic emerging industry represented by scientific and technological innovation is the birth direction of long-term bull stocks in the future.The core assets of the stock market will shift from traditional blue chips to technology growth stocks.This is a moment of calm, the stock market risk is not only quite limited this year, but also facing historic investment opportunities.